Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,879$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,200$ on 2020-11-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,814$ on 2020-11-19

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $285,655$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,879$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,110.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,110.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $101,076$ on 2020-11-19

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,308,528$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47,870$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,140.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,140.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $761,671$ on 2020-11-19

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,715,316$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,564,573.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 193.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,564,573.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $252,535$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,140.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(242,140.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,052,072$ on 2020-11-19

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,456,940$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53,870$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,666.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,666.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,399,828$ on 2020-11-19

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $201,055$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{270,466.9}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 249.6)}}\) (asimptote \(270,466.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,340$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,848.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,848.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $194,715$ on 2020-11-19

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $891,525$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,662$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,567.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,567.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $306,902$ on 2020-11-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Djibouti recovered 98%
Namibia recovered 93%
Saudi Arabia recovered 89%
Ghana recovered 86%
Iceland recovered 81%
El Salvador recovered 81%
Bahrain recovered 75%
Bolivia recovered 73%
Tajikistan recovered 72%
Venezuela recovered 66%
Cabo Verde recovered 63%
India recovered 56%
Cuba recovered 54%
Kuwait recovered 52%
Czechia recovered 49%
Guinea recovered 44%
Nepal recovered 40%
Panama recovered 34%
Armenia recovered 23%
Togo recovered 18%
Slovenia recovered 15%
Slovakia recovered 8%
Mexico recovered 4%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,935$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,516.8}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 15.7)}}\) (asimptote \(86,516.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,742$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,707.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,707.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $466$ on 2020-11-19

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,658$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,404.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,404.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-11-19

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,662$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,154.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 162.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,154.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $141$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(133.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $339$ on 2020-11-19

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $354,527$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{342,499.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.2)}}\) (asimptote \(342,499.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,729$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,664.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 127.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,664.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,842$ on 2020-11-19